LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$17.50
Said $1.75· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“ellite wave technicals are kind of pointing for it to hit roughly the mid to kind of high ones”@ 3:58 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishLucid reached a new all-time low of $2.01 amid the recall of 1,539 Air sedans (requiring physical rewiring) and no marketing VP in place at the critical Gravity pre-launch window. Elliott Wave technicals point to a mid-to-high $1 target. Only the Gravity launch can prevent a reverse stock split spiral.
Key arguments
- New all-time low of $2.01 with no official Lucid news to break the fall
- Recall of 1,539 Lucid Air sedans requiring physical rewiring — not fixable OTA
- No VP of Marketing in place; CEO openly admits marketing is horrible
- 53% of options flow is bearish; consensus for sub-$2
- Elliott Wave technicals pointing to mid-to-high $1 range
- If Gravity fails, reverse stock split almost certain given no other major catalyst until midsize in late 2026
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Short score at 81.2 indicates elevated squeeze potential
- Strong support at $1.83 — institutional buying may emerge at that level
The call
- Date said
- Nov 15, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $20.10
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $32.60
- Return
- -62.2%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $17.5. Price: $32.60.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $17.5. Price: $32.60.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.