LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$26.30
Said $2.63· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“263 is going to be the next strong Target resistance hopefully like I said that'll be touched tomorrow”@ 6:15 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishMorgan Stanley raised its bull case to $10 and changed its rating from sell to hold (equal weight), which the speaker attributes to Morgan Stanley becoming a market maker on the Saudi exchange. Shorts returned 1.32M shares on a big up day, which is unusually bullish behavior. The speaker sees the next strong resistance at $2.63 and highlights a gap to fill near $2.60.
Key arguments
- Morgan Stanley bull case of $10 – a level not seen from them in a long time – drove the stock +8.8%
- Shorts returned 1.32M shares on the up day, abnormal behavior suggesting partial capitulation
- Morgan Stanley's motivation is likely tied to becoming a market maker on the Saudi exchange, creating incentive to be friendly toward PIF-owned Lucid
- Big institutional buying visible via dark pool and secondary market transactions
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock still below all key pivotal moving averages
- Stochastic RSI slightly overbought after the move
- NVIDIA GTC keynote did not mention Lucid for autonomous driving, causing a mid-day pullback
The call
- Date said
- Mar 19, 2025
- Deadline
- Mar 20, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $23.50
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $22.80
- Return
- -3.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $26.3. Price: $22.80.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $26.3. Price: $22.80.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.