LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“you're starting to see that 350 and also $4 expected and oddly enough for February and March so most likely that's going to be uh in cuming their Q4 earnings once they do announce that probably in February this is where you see $5 anticipated”@ 5:19 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid rose 4.53% driven primarily by algorithmic trading after breaking above the key $2.47 super-trend level. Peter Rawlinson's Bloomberg interview gave multiple Easter eggs hinting at upcoming OEM partnerships and potential solid-state battery development. Options consensus has expanded from $3 to $3.50 and $4 targets, with February-March options showing $5+ expectations.
Key arguments
- Stock broke above $2.47 super-trend level, triggering algorithmic buying programs
- Peter Rawlinson's Bloomberg interview hinted at European OEM partnerships with economies-of-scale licensing
- Options premiums growing daily ($1.2M, $2.7M, $2.1M in consecutive days) showing increasing institutional conviction
- Bears anticipate sub-$2.50 short-term but even that implies more upside than downside
- Q4 earnings options show $5+ consensus for February, implying strong delivery expectations
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts returned 559K shares — abnormal vs. other heavily-shorted stocks on a green market day
- Lucid has faked out breakout attempts before; needs two consecutive days above 50-day MA to confirm
The call
- Date said
- Dec 13, 2024
- Deadline
- Feb 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $25.80
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $30.20
- Return
- +17.1%
- Notes
- Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +17.1%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +17.1%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.