TubeRank
TSLABullunverifiable
Curious PejjyCurious Pejjy
“If not this year, next year, but for sure during Trump's administration, because after that, it's going to be a little difficult, but for sure this is going to happen.”

Thesis at the time

Mixed

The host dismisses the WSJ report claiming Tesla will sell its China business to enable a SpaceX merger as largely fake, arguing Tesla would never abandon Giga Shanghai. He believes a Tesla-SpaceX merger is inevitable long-term, likely achieved through a holding-company structure that keeps Tesla China as a separate, isolated subsidiary rather than a sale.

Key arguments

  • WSJ's claim about selling Tesla China to merge with SpaceX is 'complete BS' since Giga Shanghai is Tesla's most important factory.
  • Elon Musk and Tesla China explicitly denied the report.
  • A holding company structure (Tesla China Inc. as an isolated subsidiary) could satisfy both US and Chinese regulators while still merging SpaceX with Tesla.
  • The Tesla-SpaceX merger itself is described as inevitable and likely to happen soon, especially during Trump's administration.

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • There may be a 'kernel of truth' in legacy media reports even when the overall framing is misleading, as happened with prior Reuters/robotaxi reporting.
  • Tesla stock is down 30% year to date, reflecting investor unhappiness.

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

  • Creator acknowledges the WSJ wouldn't publish completely fake articles and suggests ~1% of the story may contain truth
  • Creator expresses skepticism about unnamed sources ('people familiar with the planning')
  • Creator does not make a specific directional prediction on Tesla stock
  • Creator questions the feasibility of closing Tesla's China operations, calling it 'absolutely nuts'

The call

Date said
Jul 31, 2026
Timeframe
during Trump's administration
Confidence
high
Specificity
vague

How it resolved

Status
unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Reference price
— (anchored at quote date)
Target used
—
Deadline source
Horizon (long → +1095d from publish)
Effective: Jul 30, 2029
Age at resolution
1.8 months(from publish date)

Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.

Confidence Reasoning

Repeated certainty language ('for sure', 'going to happen', '100%', '99.9%') with no hedging, indicating strong conviction, though it concerns a corporate merger event rather than a specific stock price.

Source

Elon Musk DENIES WSJ Tesla Rumours BUT…
Said on Jul 31, 2026Open on YouTube ↗
View full video analysisView YouTuber profile