TSLA bullish call by Brighter with Herbert

TSLABullunverifiable

“Once it does, expect a flood of money.”

Thesis at the time

Strongly Bullish

The hosts frame nearly every piece of news in the episode as bullish for Tesla: a new FSD safety feature (Automatic Collision Evasion), continued Model Y sales dominance, Giga Berlin production ramping to meet demand that is outpacing supply, and progress toward FSD Supervised approval in Europe and China. They see the combination of safety improvements, sales records, and regulatory catalysts as pointing in the same positive direction for the company.

Key arguments

New FSD 14.3.9 feature 'Automatic Collision Evasion' adds another safety layer that could eventually roll out to all Tesla vehicles.
Model Y has been the world's best-selling passenger vehicle for three straight years and is on pace for a fourth, up nearly 20% year-over-year through July.
Giga Berlin is increasing shifts to raise output from 6,500 to 7,500 vehicles per week because European demand is outrunning supply, even before FSD Supervised is approved there.
Tesla China exports jumped nearly 39% even as domestic retail dipped, and a quarter-end cash incentive program is being used to boost September sales.
FSD Supervised approval is pending in Europe (EU vote October 6) and progressing (slowly) in China, which the guest says would unleash a 'flood of money' once approved due to near-zero marginal cost of the software.

Counter-arguments acknowledged

China retail sales were down 12.4% year-over-year in August.
FSD Supervised approval in China has been delayed for over a year with no clear timeline.
Chinese competitors are releasing new car models at an extremely rapid pace, intensifying competition.

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

China retail sales down 12.4% year-over-year despite export growth
Automatic collision evasion feature currently limited to specific highway conditions and FSD subscribers
Production constraints suggest supply-side limitations rather than demand validation
Quarter-end promotional pricing (Model Y discounts) may indicate sales pressure