AAPLBullpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$425
“We take their current EPS and we multiply it by about a 24 peg. probably this could be a $425 stock.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin argues that OpenAI's reported purchase of tens of thousands of Mac Minis and Mac Studios highlights Apple's unified-memory advantage for agentic AI workloads, which could meaningfully boost Mac segment growth if memory supply constraints ease. He frames a bull case where accelerated EPS growth could re-rate the stock materially higher, while acknowledging near-term financial impact is currently small due to memory supply limits.
Key arguments
- OpenAI is reportedly buying tens of thousands of Mac Minis and Studios for agentic AI due to the M5 Ultra's up to 512GB unified memory, which beats Nvidia's RTX 6000/5090 on headroom for large models.
- Mac revenue growth has been outpacing iPhone growth percentage-wise, and rising demand for Mac hardware in AI infrastructure could add incremental revenue.
- AI labs are 'spending like drunk sailors' via circular financing, signaling continued infrastructure demand that benefits suppliers like Apple.
- If Apple's EPS growth rate accelerates from ~9% to 20% due to AI-driven Mac demand and margin expansion, the stock could re-rate to a much higher valuation.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Current Mac growth estimates are only about 8-9%, so near-term EPS impact from this news is small (~27 cents per share).
- Apple is memory-constrained, limiting how much of this demand can actually convert to revenue/EPS growth in the near term.
- Apple's valuation (PEG ratio) is already elevated, and Kevin says he doesn't want to pay current price levels for the stock.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Stock price target depends on Apple's future growth assumptions
- Technical analysis based on hardware specifications, not financial fundamentals
- M5 512GB unified RAM not yet available
- Comparison limited to specific GPU models (RTX 5090, RTX 6000)
The call
- Date said
- Sep 1, 2026
- Timeframe
- if memory supply increases and EPS growth accelerates by 2027-2030
- Current price (live)
- $339.75$85.25 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Heavily hedged conditional scenario dependent on multiple assumptions (20% EPS growth, memory supply easing, sustained pricing power); speaker uses 'if you believe', 'probably', and 'let's assume', though the target price itself is specific.
Source
OpenAI *JUST* Went Mega Deep on Apple's Stock. Should you?
Said on Sep 1, 2026Open on YouTube ↗