LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$35
Said $3.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if it closes above that [280] for two consecutive days I would anticipate at least that 350 to somewhat be hit in the short term”@ 7:19 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid surged 6.16% on large institutional dark pool buying (850K shares) despite no official news, suggesting informed buying ahead of a potential catalyst. Faisal Sultan's promotion to Middle East president is seen as a positive operational signal. The speaker notes 76% of options are neutral/bullish, and with Lucid above the 200-day MA, a close above $2.80 for two consecutive days could trigger a move toward $3.50 in the short term.
Key arguments
- Large institutional dark pool buying (~850K shares in duplicate orders) signals informed bullish positioning
- Faisal Sultan promoted to Middle East president — a capable, straight-talking executive
- Lucid is now above the 200-day MA at $2.80 — technically significant level
- 76% of options are neutral/bullish; call options at $2.50 (June 20) and $3 (July 18) are in focus
- Short squeeze potential if catalysts emerge — shorts increasing 3.34M shares but losing money on an up day
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- No official news released; reason for the rally is unclear
- Shorts still extremely heavy at 28.76% of float
The call
- Date said
- May 20, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $29.60
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.80
- Return
- -26.4%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35. Price: $21.80.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35. Price: $21.80.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.