LCIDBullpartial
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I don't know if I can say that we'll close above three. But I think it is fair to assume that we will be closing somewhere between this R2 and this R1 [264-278]”@ 9:13 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid closed at $2.51 above the 50-day MA, confirming it remains technically supported. The speaker notes Lucid is the most heavily shorted EV stock (29.3%, vs Rivian at ~18%), which creates significant short-squeeze potential if positive catalysts emerge. Open interest of 35K at $3 would force a gamma squeeze. The speaker expects upside this week if US-China negotiations go well, with $2.64-$3.01 as near-term targets, but notes analysts remain skeptical and Lucid needs a 'home run' quarter.
Key arguments
- Lucid is #1 most heavily shorted EV, with 29.3% of float shorted — nearly double Rivian at #2
- Positive US-China weekend negotiations are expected to boost heavily-shorted stocks
- Market makers need to cover 2.9M shares from 27K in-the-money $2.50 calls
- Open interest: 35K at $3 creates gamma squeeze trigger if approached
- Lucid offering deep discounts up to $20K+ on Air sedans — the speaker views as competitive amid tariff pressure
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts increased 1.78M shares despite Lucid's strong Friday
- Analyst consensus price target of $2.44 represents slight downside from current levels
- Deep discounts could signal weak demand according to bears
The call
- Date said
- May 11, 2025
- Deadline
- May 16, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $26.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- partial
- Resolution price
- $28.40
- Return
- +8.4%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Moved 58% toward target $30. Price: $28.40.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Moved 58% toward target $30. Price: $28.40.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.