TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$11,800
“the change on the 2030 share price of 11,800 after risk discount doesn't change much.”@ 20:40 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishPost-earnings model update increases near-term targets: $1,000 by end-2025 and $2,000 for 2026 assuming June robotaxi launch succeeds, with Austin ride-hail market destroyed in Q4 2025 and FSD autopay adoption driving an EBITDA jump.
Key arguments
- June launch: 10-20 Model Ys day one, scalable to 100+ within weeks once validated.
- Fair value share price today is ~$900 vs market ~$250 - a $693 discount.
- End-2025 fair value: $1,000; 2026 fair value: $2,000; 2030: $11,800.
- 95% probability Uber is dead in Austin by Q4 2025 if June launch succeeds.
- 95% probability of 1,000 share price this year contingent on June launch not being a disaster.
- EBITDA trajectory: 2027 $36B, 2028 $166B, 2029 $348B driven by robotaxi scale.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Elon lowballed Optimus to 1M by 2030 vs Bhakdi's 1M by 2029.
- 20% risk June launch is a disaster with something going wrong.
The call
- Date said
- Apr 23, 2025
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $250.74
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$11,421.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Risk-discounted DCF-based long-term fair-value share price.