LCIDNeutralhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$18
“most likely it's just going to trade between probably that 17 to kind of like $19 range for at least the foreseeable future”@ 11:47 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
NeutralThe speaker provides a neutral-to-slightly-bearish earnings preview, expecting Lucid to guide within a lowered range of 16,000–18,000 units versus the previous 18,000–20,000. Retail questions are dismissed as softball setups. The speaker sees no major new partnerships being announced, but notes Nvidia will be highlighted. A 11.1% implied earnings move ($2) is expected.
Key arguments
- Speaker expects guidance cut to 16,000–18,000 from prior 18,000–20,000
- Wall Street focuses almost exclusively on Lucid's future guidance, not current metrics
- 12% implied earnings move — watch for options plays rather than common stock
- Lucid Q3 revenue estimate: $370.64M (85.28% YoY growth) — bar is low
- No major new partnerships expected to be announced
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If Lucid reiterates 18,000–20,000 guidance, market could take it positively
- Low expectations mean any positive surprise could trigger a V-shaped recovery
The call
- Date said
- Nov 2, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $16.64
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $11.07
- Return
- -33.5%
- Notes
- Ceiling $18 held through deadline. Final price: $11.07 (-33.5% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Ceiling $18 held through deadline. Final price: $11.07 (-33.5% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.