TSLABullpending
Curious PejjyTarget Range
$420–$500
“I think the premium is going to be at least 420 highest 500 if anything happens because it has to match SpaceX's valuation too cuz I think at least it has to be merger of equals.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe YouTuber believes Elon Musk strongly hinted at an eventual Tesla-SpaceX merger during the All-In Summit interview, and expects an announcement within the next two months given the delayed shareholder meeting. He anticipates the merger will be structured as roughly a 'merger of equals' with a premium for Tesla shareholders, and sets a personal year-end price target for Tesla stock.
Key arguments
- Elon Musk's evasive, suggestive answer about why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate is interpreted as confirmation a merger is coming.
- Tesla's unusually delayed shareholder meeting announcement (normally May-August) is seen as evidence merger negotiations are the holdup.
- He expects the merger to value Tesla at least equal to SpaceX (a 'merger of equals'), implying a premium for Tesla shareholders.
- Long-term, he believes owners of the combined Tesla/SpaceX/xAI entity will be 'very well off'.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If the premium ends up only 50%, the resulting price target would be lower (around $500) rather than his $700 target.
- He doubts strong robotaxi numbers in Q3/Q4 will be enough to significantly jump the stock ahead of a merger.
- He tempers expectations that shareholders demanding $600-$1000/share for their vote will get that valuation, saying they'll likely be disappointed.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Merger is speculative and not officially confirmed
- Creator acknowledges this is interpretation of Elon's vague comments
- Actual merger terms and timing remain uncertain
- Creator expresses personal investment opinion rather than financial advice
- Merger valuation scenarios are hypothetical
The call
- Date said
- Sep 15, 2026
- Timeframe
- sometime next year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Price at prediction
- $358.97
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$81.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific numeric range and clear directional call, but softened by hedging language ('I think', 'if anything happens') and tied to a not-yet-confirmed merger event.
Source
Elon Musk's BIG HINT on Tesla-SpaceX Merger
Said on Sep 15, 2026Open on YouTube ↗