TLTBearunverifiable
Randy Kirk“I doubt if it'll go much over five because then greedy greedy people will come in and start buying it up.”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker discusses the 10-year yield approaching 5% and is uncertain whether it will breach that level, doubting it will go 'much over five' before buyers step back in, implying limited further downside for bond prices from here.
Key arguments
- 10-year yield near 4.91%, first time over 4.9% in a while
- No clear fundamental reason for yields to be this high, attributes much of the move to 'emotion'
- Believes yields are unlikely to rise much past 5% before buyers return
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Acknowledges some international factors could be driving yields higher
- Notes there needs to be a 'breakthrough' on oil or inflation for a meaningful pullback in yields
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Personal cost basis mentioned ($160 SpaceX price) may indicate emotional attachment to position
- Cybercab still in early deployment phase with limited real-world data
- Market conditions described as 'down market' suggesting broader headwinds
- Midterm elections noted as dominant news factor creating uncertainty
- Bond yields approaching 5% and oil near $100 indicate macro volatility
The call
- Date said
- Sep 10, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $81.73
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Heavily hedged with 'I doubt', 'I don't know', and 'there's a chance', reflecting genuine uncertainty about further yield moves and bond price direction.
Source
Cybercab Better than It Looks; SpaceX Up 2% in Down Market
Said on Sep 10, 2026Open on YouTube ↗