LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$24.20
Said $2.42· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“below that is going to be 242 and then above all of this for resistance levels 348 and 414”@ 6:38 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid is down nearly 6% and has broken below the 50-day moving average - a historically significant breakdown signal. A sell-rated analyst note with a $3 target (from Adam Jonas with 50% success rate) adds to the bearish backdrop. The speaker notes that without near-term catalysts and with fear dominating the market, Lucid's technology story gets overshadowed. However, a 66.5% probability of a 50bps September rate cut and extreme oversold stochastic (12) means any positive catalyst could trigger a sharp reversal.
Key arguments
- Stock below 50-day moving average - historically signals further downside for Lucid
- Adam Jonas (50% success rate) issued sell rating with $3 price target
- Analysts focused on poor future guidance: no gravity date, partnerships not until 2025+
- Middle East tensions creating broad market fear and risk-off environment
- 50bps rate cut probability at 66.5% for September - still a potential catalyst
- Stochastic at 12 (extremely oversold) - bounce possible on any positive news
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stochastic extremely oversold at 12 - sharp bounce possible on any positive catalyst
- Rate cuts remain the next major catalyst
The call
- Date said
- Aug 7, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $29.10
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $23.50
- Return
- +19.2%
- Notes
- Target ≤$24.2 reached on 2024-10-30. Price: $23.50. Return: +19.2%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$24.2 reached on 2024-10-30. Price: $23.50. Return: +19.2%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.