Target Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“you see a consensus for it to be roughly around that 250 to $3 range for this week and then three plus going into the next week”@ 3:56 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid is up 2.41% on a chaotic market day driven by a false tariff-pause rumor that briefly spiked stocks. Since Q1 results, big money has been consistently buying Lucid on the secondary market, and the stock is up 10.66% over the past month while the broader market is in panic mode. Two recent analyst price targets — $5 and $3 — provide upside reference points. The 50-day MA ($254) is the critical breakout level; a close above it for two consecutive days triggers the historical 30% run pattern. Shorts are adding 2.38M shares but are fighting a losing battle against institutional accumulation.
Key arguments
- Lucid up 10.66% in one month while broader market is in turmoil — shows relative strength and institutional support
- Multiple secondary market buys outweigh the 3 sells — big money net buying
- Analyst price targets of $5 and $3 provide clear upside targets above current price
- 47% bullish options sentiment on a broad down day is notable — real conviction, not just piggyback momentum
- 50-day MA ($254) breakout would signal 30% historical run
- Lucid's upcoming earnings Q&A is another opportunity for retail to ask hard questions
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts increasing 2.38M shares shows bears aren't giving up
- The tariff-pause that spiked markets was fake news — macro uncertainty remains high
- Revenue of $250.48M consensus and -$0.23 EPS expectations are still deeply in loss territory
The call
- Date said
- Apr 7, 2025
- Deadline
- Apr 11, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.50
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25
- Return
- +2.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 9% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.00.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 9% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.00.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.