LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$12.34
“1234 is going to be the next strong support and that's kind of where Elliot Wave Technicals is somewhat projecting for it to go”
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid hit a new all-time low of $14.41 as big money is not buying the dip and algorithmic trading dominates volume. With 28.59% of the free float shorted and rate cut probability fading, near-term macro tailwinds are disappearing. The speaker warns that the technicals look like a falling knife and the next strong support is $12.34.
Key arguments
- Big money not buying the dip — secondary market shows near zero institutional buying
- Rate cut probability dropped from 95.5% to 45.9% in one month, removing key macro catalyst
- Short interest at 28.59% of free float (41.18M shares), still overextended with DTC at 4.14
- Gravity giveaway on The View is skeptically received — speaker worried it may be at Lucid's expense
- Bears in options market targeting sub-$4 (pre-split), with $15.50 expected into next week
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 13Fs showed institutions bought Lucid dip in Q3
- Short score at 80.24 signals shorts overextended, potential for squeeze
The call
- Date said
- Nov 14, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $14.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $11.72
- Return
- +17.5%
- Notes
- Target ≤$12.34 reached on 2025-11-20. Price: $11.72. Return: +17.5%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$12.34 reached on 2025-11-20. Price: $11.72. Return: +17.5%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.