TSLABullpartial
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$480
“Tesla is likely to get back to 480 in my opinion if robo taxi works.”@ 33:42 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is likely to revisit prior all-time highs around $480-500 by summer if robotaxi rollout works; avoiding mid-2026 expirations and favoring shorter or longer-dated LEAPS maximizes risk-adjusted returns.
Key arguments
- Empirical options matrix shows mid-2026 LEAPS have anomalously bad time decay - avoid them.
- Robotaxi rollout success is more likely than not and would push TSLA back to prior ATH of $488.
- If one failure in summer, probabilistically unlikely they fail again in fall - eventual success drives exponential upside.
- Black-Scholes is structurally wrong for out-of-the-money Tesla LEAPS; need empirical matrix instead.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- LEAPS can generate large losses from time decay even with directional accuracy.
- Far-out-of-the-money calls produce severe losses on sideways moves.
The call
- Date said
- May 13, 2025
- Timeframe
- summer 2025
- Deadline
- Sep 22, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $334.07
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- partial
- Resolution price
- $434.21
- Return
- +30.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Moved 69% toward target $480. Price: $434.21.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Moved 69% toward target $480. Price: $434.21.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on robotaxi working; anchored to prior all-time high of $488 and positive macro.