TSLABullpending
Randy KirkTarget Price
$3,300
“I can give you my numbers for 2030 which would include Terapab and which would include Optimus and which would include Solar Fab and which would include the maybe by then the merger you know and we could get to a valuation maybe it's 10 trillion and a stock of 3,300 per share.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishRandy Kirk argues he remains a buyer of Tesla at current levels because vehicle sales momentum, upcoming unsupervised FSD, Semi ramp, and margin expansion set up a much higher valuation, with robotaxi and Optimus upside not yet priced in. He builds a sum-of-the-parts model stacking auto/energy profits, FSD subscription income, and robotaxi fleet growth to justify a much higher share price than today's.
Key arguments
- Unsupervised FSD rollout expected in 2027 could cause explosive demand as social sentiment shifts positive
- Vehicle production capacity increases planned across Texas, Berlin, and Shanghai to push output toward 2.88 million vehicles in 2027
- Semi truck ramp adds meaningful profit equivalent to multiple average vehicle sales
- Margins should improve as demand outstrips supply, reducing discounts and incentives
- Robotaxi and Optimus growth are largely unpriced in current valuation, offering further upside
- Energy division profit expected to grow 40-50% year over year
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shanghai and Fremont factories appear to be near maximum capacity
- Cyber cab unit sales will be limited because fleet vehicles do not count as retail sales
- Significant future growth depends on Texas ramping up production, which is uncertain
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Barring a negative shock
- Personal buying restricted for 4 months due to family decision-making process
- Production capacity limited to approximately 500,000 cars per quarter
- FSD unsupervised rollout timeline uncertain despite being described as 'incredibly close'
The call
- Date said
- Aug 23, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$2,921.10 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Heavily hedged with 'maybe' and 'could', and dependent on multiple speculative future businesses (Terapab, Optimus, Solar Fab, a merger) all materializing.
Source
Why I'm a Buyer of Tesla at These Levels
Said on Aug 23, 2026Open on YouTube ↗