TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,400
“In 2026 the fair future value would be 1,400 in December 2026.”@ 14:11 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishDCF-based fair future value is materially above current price, with robo-taxi scaling in 2026 and Optimus ramp in 2028 acting as forcing functions for major repricing.
Key arguments
- Base-case robo-taxi fleet reaches 40,000 units in 2026, 100M by 2037 with 174B in additional EBITDA by 2030.
- Optimus scales to 100,000 units in 2028 and 1 million by 2030, adding high free-cash-flow business.
- Free cash flow reaches 7B in 2026, 100B in 2029, 1T in 2032 in base case.
- FSD v14 coming and v15 likely Q1-Q2 2026, close to perfect operation.
- 73% intrinsic upside today based on Sept fair future value of $747 vs $430 market price.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If robo-taxi is delayed by a year, the whole model shifts by a year.
- Bear case assumes everything goes wrong but model still looks okay.
- Each city requires separate regulatory approval, slowing the ramp.
The call
- Date said
- Sep 26, 2025
- Timeframe
- December 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $440.40
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$1,021.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Explicit base-case model output tied to robo-taxi and Optimus milestones.