TSLABullunverifiable
Brighter with Herbert“I get very confident that we hit like multiple thousands this year, but let's see.”
Thesis at the time
BullishHerbert and guest Jo Bhakdi discuss Tesla's rapid robotaxi fleet expansion, noting the fleet has grown to 476 registered vehicles in Texas including 67 CyberCabs. They argue that crossing the psychological threshold of 100 vehicles in active service could act as a catalyst that reawakens investor interest in the stock.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi fleet grew from 9 to 28 to 476 total registered vehicles in Texas in a short span
- CyberCab production could reportedly scale to 300 units per week
- Reaching 100 vehicles in service is seen as the first 'mini catalyst' for investor attention
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Growth could be gradual ('boiling a frog') rather than a single shocking headline number
- Independent tracker shows only 42 vehicles actually spotted in the wild versus 67 registered
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Distinction noted between registered vehicles (476) and actively deployed vehicles in the wild (42 tracked)
- Lag acknowledged between registration and actual deployment
- Tracker limitations may undercount deployed vehicles
- Future catalysts are speculative (100 vehicle threshold mentioned as 'magical number')
- Volume production of AI5 chip targeted for 2027 (future date)
The call
- Date said
- Sep 22, 2026
- Timeframe
- this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $375.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong confidence language ('very confident') but hedged with 'let's see' and the claim concerns fleet unit count, not a stock price target.
Source
Wait… Tesla Just Added HOW Many Robotaxis?
Said on Sep 22, 2026Open on YouTube ↗