TSLABullpending
Brighter with HerbertTarget Price
$3,000
“According to CERN, he did he did some of the parts, then he discounted it to today. Even if you put like a 50% chance things are happening or not happening, not winning all markets, being very conservative, the stock current uh price present value should be he's at 3,000 even more.”@ 9:21 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is heavily undervalued as the market is only pricing in the auto business while ignoring massive future opportunities in robotaxis, humanoid robots, AI, and energy. The company has multiple 'shots on goal' with each opportunity potentially worth $1,000-$2,000 in stock value.
Key arguments
- Multiple breakthrough opportunities including robotaxis, Optimus robots, AI/XAI partnership, and energy business
- Historical pattern of moving sideways then breaking out dramatically
- Strong execution despite timeline delays - all major projects still progressing
- Potential SpaceX merger creating $110+ billion combined entity
- FSD technology reaching practical usability levels
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Consistent timeline delays and missed targets
- Auto business earnings dropped 47% with flat deliveries
- Some projects like solar roof and 4680 batteries faced setbacks
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Timelines for Tesla initiatives keep getting missed
- Traditional valuation metrics (PE ratio) may not apply to growth stocks
- Bear case acknowledges earnings dropped 47% last year and deliveries are flat
- Stock performance has been flat for 5 years despite business expansion
- Valuation depends on which version of Tesla you're analyzing (auto business vs. diversified segments)
The call
- Date said
- Apr 13, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $352.42
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$2,621.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Referenced detailed sum-of-parts analysis with conservative assumptions