LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$12.34
“the next big thing for Lucid, which could be tested tomorrow, is going to be that 50-day moving average sitting at 1234.”@ 7:23 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid is up 3.53% on broader market optimism plus PIF reaffirmation news via Canaccord analyst Andre Shepard, who confirmed PIF remains committed to Lucid long-term. A new 2x short ETF on LCID launched suspiciously during the rally, which the speaker sees as manipulation but notes the cost to borrow (245%) makes it impractical for retail. Two consecutive days above the 10-day moving average set up a potential test of the 50-day MA at $12.34. The speaker identifies $9.50 as the confirmed floor having called it weeks earlier.
Key arguments
- PIF confirmed as committed long-term via Canaccord (Andre Shepard) analyst note
- Lucid up 3.53% — two consecutive days above 10-day MA signals confirmed trend
- 50-day moving average at $12.34 is the next key technical target
- New 2x short ETF on LCID launched during rally — timing seen as suspicious
- Speaker previously called $9.50 as floor — confirmed as accurate in hindsight
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- New 2x short ETF adds a new tool for bears to suppress the stock
- Algorithmic trading still the primary volume source — genuine buying is secondary
The call
- Date said
- Jan 22, 2026
- Deadline
- Jan 23, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $11.47
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $11.06
- Return
- -3.6%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $12.34. Price: $11.06.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $12.34. Price: $11.06.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.