Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$40
Said $4· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“of the call options that are being purchased roughly around $4 is anticipated”@ 6:12 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe Canadian Gravity pricing announcement (Touring at CAD $113,500, Grand Touring at $134,500) represents a significant improvement over prior 10-15% currency markup surcharge that deterred Canadian customers. The speaker personally disclosed this makes him want to buy more Lucid shares — a rare personal sentiment signal. Shorts returning 847K shares is the 'middle finger to shorts' the market has been waiting for. A large $1.34M put sold at $2.50 strike for January 2026 is interpreted as net bullish (income-generating strategy). Options consensus around $4 for near-term strikes emerging for the first time in a while.
Key arguments
- Canadian Gravity pricing at/below fair currency conversion removes prior 10-15% deterrent for Canadian buyers
- Speaker personally disclosed buying more LCID based on this news — high conviction signal
- Shorts returning 847K shares second consecutive day adds buy pressure
- Options consensus coalescing around $4 target for near-term — first time in a while
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Large $2.50 put sold for Jan 2026 is technically bearish in orientation despite income rationale
- February 28 (earnings) options chain still has limited activity — earnings uncertainty persists
The call
- Date said
- Jan 16, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $30.80
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $23.10
- Return
- -25.0%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $23.10.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $23.10.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.