TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$700
“The midpoint fair value fair future value of stock of Tesla stock is over $700 for 2026.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishJo believes Tesla is dramatically undervalued heading into the Cybercab commercial launch in Austin, citing years of tracked FSD/robotaxi progress, regulatory approvals in states like Nevada, and Waymo's inferior cost structure. He is running a highly leveraged short-put options strategy into the launch event while acknowledging macro risks (bonds, Iran, Fed) could disrupt the trade.
Key arguments
- Cybercab commercial launch is confirmed for September 3rd in Austin after years of tracked progress
- Tesla applied for and received approval for 5,000 robotaxis in Nevada versus Waymo's 1,000, showing Waymo cannot scale
- Waymo's hardware costs ~$20,000-$55,000 more per car than Tesla's, giving Tesla a durable cost advantage
- Stock is currently just closing a gap from the pre-earnings drop, not yet pricing in the launch catalyst
- Long-term, robotaxi is described as the biggest cash cow once it scales and will re-rate the stock once financials reflect it
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Macro risks including rising bond yields, Japanese carry trade unwind, Iran sanctions, and Nvidia earnings could hurt the trade
- The launch event could be a 'sell the news' event if the stock runs too far (e.g., to 420) beforehand
- By ~2030 autonomy could be commoditized and Chinese makers like BYD/Xpeng may erode Tesla's hardware cost advantage
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator acknowledges past prediction error on May Cybercab launch timing
- Fair value model described as 'midpoint' with range implied but not fully detailed
- Valuation model update promised for later in the week, suggesting current analysis is preliminary
- Creator notes previous incorrect timing on Q2 earnings impact
The call
- Date said
- Aug 23, 2026
- Timeframe
- for 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$321.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific numeric target given with reasonable certainty language ('pretty safe to say') but softened by 'I think' and framed as a fair-value model rather than a hard call.
Source
10 Days To Cybercab Launch - My Tesla Stock Game Plan
Said on Aug 23, 2026Open on YouTube ↗