TNXBullunverifiable
Meet KevinTarget Price
$4.80
“Wouldn't surprise me if we actually end up breaking, uh, 4.8 by the end of the week.”
Thesis at the time
BearishKevin expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise further amid escalating Iran conflict and inflation concerns tied to higher oil prices. He believes the Fed and Treasury will avoid tightening, letting yields drift higher.
Key arguments
- Escalating Iran conflict is driving oil prices and headline inflation expectations higher
- He expects the Fed/Treasury to 'sit on their hands' rather than intervene
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Conflicting reports between US military (CENTCOM) and Iranian sources regarding mine incidents
- Uncertainty about whether threatened strikes will actually occur
- Distinction made between Trump's rhetoric and actual military action
- Acknowledgment of both US and Iranian propaganda narratives
The call
- Date said
- Aug 31, 2026
- Timeframe
- by the end of the week
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
- Notes
- No feed can price TNX — the call is recorded but cannot be scored.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
No feed can price TNX — the call is recorded but cannot be scored.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Hedged with 'wouldn't surprise me' rather than a firm commitment, though the target and timeframe are specific.
Source
Trump MORE STRIKES on Iran are Coming | WORSENING Oil Crisis.
Said on Aug 31, 2026Open on YouTube ↗