TLTBearunverifiable
Michael Tyler“He's trying to get bond yields lower. It's just not working.”
Thesis at the time
BearishThe host argues 10-year Treasury yields are breaking out to a 19-year high near 5% and that nothing the Treasury is doing is working to bring yields down, implying continued pressure on long-duration bond prices. He says only an economic crack, an AI trade slowdown, or an end to the Iran war could bring yields down.
Key arguments
- 10-year yields hit 5.012%, a 19-year high, with bond vigilantes pressuring the Fed to hike
- A weak 20-year bond auction today showed softer demand, requiring higher yields to clear
- Competition for capital from AI-related debt issuance is pulling investor demand away from Treasuries
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Yields could fall if the Fed signals more hikes than the market expects, or if the Iran war ends
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
- Predictions are probabilistic (92% Fed hike probability cited)
- Acknowledges uncertainty about dovish vs hawkish hike outcome
- Notes that market could move either direction despite volatility expectations
- Historical precedent cited (June triple witching) may not repeat exactly
The call
- Date said
- Sep 15, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $80.93
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Firm, unhedged statement about continued yield pressure implies further bond price weakness, but no explicit target or timeframe is given.