LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$20.20
Said $2.02· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I do feel that we will be closing between this S probably this S2 and this S3. So between that 205 and a $1.99”@ 6:08 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid is below all key moving averages and Elliott Wave technicals project a $1.90 target. With the Fed decision on Wednesday, potential Middle East escalation, and no specific Lucid catalysts this week, the speaker expects a close between $1.99 and $2.05 and believes things need to get worse before they get better.
Key arguments
- Lucid is below all key moving averages — technically a vicious downtrend
- Elliott Wave technicals project a target of ~$1.90
- Fed rate decision on Wednesday likely to be a hold; Powell commentary could add volatility
- Middle East tensions between Israel and Iran are escalating, suppressing risk appetite
- Short interest at 30.57% of float; shorts recently doubling down
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If China deal or Middle East resolution materializes, Lucid could snap back quickly given oversold status
- Bulls in options market anticipating a recovery toward $2.50
The call
- Date said
- Jun 15, 2025
- Deadline
- Jun 20, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.50
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.90
- Return
- -1.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $20.2. Price: $21.90.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $20.2. Price: $21.90.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.