TSLANeutralunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“I think it's going to go sideways for the next two months until end of the year.”@ 2:30 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
NeutralTesla is in a sideways channel through end of 2025 with no near-term catalysts since Optimus reveal has been pushed to Q1 2026 and robo-taxi safety driver removal is already priced in; long-term remains bullish.
Key arguments
- Catalysts have all been pushed to Q1 2026 with Optimus reveal.
- Robo-taxi safety driver removal confirmed for end of 2025 in Austin but already priced in.
- Stock is in a clear 410-460 trading channel.
- November 6 shareholder meeting will not bring an Optimus demo.
- Q3 earnings were incredibly bullish for 2026 with cybercab at scale in H2 2026.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A Roadster VTOL reveal has a 10% chance of creating an unexpected catalyst.
- Going into 2026/2027 could see an explosive phase like 2020.
The call
- Date said
- Oct 26, 2025
- Timeframe
- through end of 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $452.42
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Based on absence of catalysts, not a specific price target.