Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$15
Said $1.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“there was 1.95 million in premiums towards it looks like a $150 put was purchased for January 15th, 2027”@ 5:28 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid fell 6.42% today but largely alongside the market due to a weak 20-year bond auction that drove yields higher and crushed growth stocks. Shorts returned 2.5M shares (suggesting the move wasn't fully justified on the short side), but a major institutional options trade — $1.95M in premiums on a $1.50 put for January 15, 2027 — indicates big money sees significant downside risk over the medium term. Gravity production flyover showed 180 units (up from 70), which the speaker views as improving but not satisfying to the market.
Key arguments
- Big money bet $1.95M on a $1.50 January 2027 put — major bearish institutional signal
- 64% of options activity is bearish; total premium skewed toward downside
- 20-year bond auction weak (5.1% discount rate), reflecting reduced demand from China/Japan for US debt
- Shorts returned 2.5M shares (bullish signal) but were overwhelmed by institutional selling and algo trading
- Gravity flyover shows 180 units — production ramping but market not satisfied
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts returning 2.5M shares signals today's decline wasn't justified
- Elliott Wave targets $3.40-3.61 as long as price stays above $2.45
The call
- Date said
- May 21, 2025
- Deadline
- Jan 15, 2027
- Price at prediction
- $27.70
- Confidence
- unspecified
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $14.20
- Return
- +48.7%
- Notes
- Target ≤$15 reached on 2025-11-14. Price: $14.20. Return: +48.7%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$15 reached on 2025-11-14. Price: $14.20. Return: +48.7%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.