TLTBullunverifiable
Meet Kevin“If right now we are pricing in four hikes, we're not going to get four hikes.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin argues that despite a near-term Fed rate hike, disinflationary forces from AI productivity, normalizing labor participation, and the fading Iran conflict will bring rates down over time, with him betting on the lowest rates ever by 2032. He also believes markets are currently pricing in too many future hikes, which he expects to be walked back as inflation cools.
Key arguments
- AI-driven disinflation and normalizing labor force participation will push rates lower long-term
- Markets are pricing in four rate hikes but he expects fewer as inflation data improves
- A Fed hike now is paradoxically bullish because it prevents stagflation fears and sets up future rate-hike unwinds
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Super core inflation is running hot at 6% annualized
- Myron's concern that the labor market could weaken is a valid long-term risk, even if not currently showing in the data
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Long-term thesis extends to 2032, requiring multiple structural shifts in labor participation and inflation dynamics
- Short-term market pricing may be incorrect, introducing execution risk
- Geopolitical factors (Iran conflict) could persist longer than expected
- AI buildout phase remains inflationary before disinflationary benefits materialize
- Acknowledges labor market could weaken, creating near-term volatility
The call
- Date said
- Sep 16, 2026
- Timeframe
- over the next year
- Price at prediction
- $80.71
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
He states this with conviction ('I believe the market is actually pricing in too many hikes') but acknowledges he could be wrong.
Source
The Fed MUST Hike Today.
Said on Sep 16, 2026Open on YouTube ↗