LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“I think around, 1900 and in my opinion what Peter did say that is that they did more so as a very bare minimum yeah 1640 plus whatever else so I think in reality 2100 can be expected”@ 2:37 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker presents a bull case based on estimated Q3 numbers (587 US sales in September plus Peter Rawlinson's prior disclosure implying ~2,100 total deliveries) that would far exceed expectations. However, shorts are increasing by 4.17M shares in a single day - an extraordinary level the speaker attributes to insider knowledge or a specific vendetta, pushing toward all-time high short interest of 32.5%.
Key arguments
- US September sales of 587 vehicles plus prior Peter disclosure implies ~2,100 Q3 deliveries
- At current pace, Lucid will easily surpass 9,000 annual delivery target
- Shorts increasing 4.17M shares in one day - possibly acting on non-public information
- Stock technically oversold but showing bearish deviation on stochastic
- Rivian being equally shorted despite similar cash-burn profile, undermining bear thesis
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Institutions are selling on secondary market, not buying the dip
- Retail investors also getting out per momentum indicator
The call
- Date said
- Oct 2, 2024
- Deadline
- Oct 7, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $33.40
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.