TSLABullunverifiable
Solving The Money Problem“FSD revenue for Tesla is going to continue to increase meaningfully over time as FSD supervised is approved and released in more countries around the world.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker argues Tesla's FSD supervised software is progressing rapidly, citing strong European safety data and rising robotaxi deployment in Austin as evidence the company is close to solving autonomy. He believes this will drive significant high-margin FSD subscription revenue growth over time, even though the pace has been slower than his prior expectations.
Key arguments
- FSD supervised was 5.2x safer than manual driving across 65 million km in five EU countries
- Q2 FSD attach rate on new US vehicles sold exceeded 55%
- FSD subscriptions are close to 100% profit since the hardware is already installed
- Robotaxi fleet in Austin grew to 55 unsupervised vehicles with high utilization on a record day
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Robotaxi/autonomy rollout has been slower than the speaker previously expected, by his own admission over 6 months behind his earlier estimate
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- No specific price targets or directional predictions provided in transcript
- Commentary focuses on technical progress rather than financial forecasts
- Stock prices mentioned as currently down from IPO and recent highs
- Discussion of future potential (Starlink growth, orbital AI, autonomy) is speculative but not framed as a specific prediction
The call
- Date said
- Jul 29, 2026
- Timeframe
- over time
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Certainty language ('is going to continue') strengthens conviction, but no specific price target or firm timeframe is given, and the claim is about revenue trajectory rather than stock price.
Source
The Craziest Thing You've EVER Seen: Wild SpaceX Feat
Said on Jul 29, 2026Open on YouTube ↗