LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$35.20
Said $3.52· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“352 is going to be the next strong Target so I don't know if that's a able at all today but at least in the next several trading days that should be the next Target”@ 5:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid Middle East announced a partnership with the Saudi Authority for Accredited Valuers to improve vehicle damage assessments. Saudi Arabia's massive lithium reserve discovery is seen as indirectly strengthening Lucid's AMP2 supply chain. The stock is above all key moving averages and very near overbought on the stochastic RSI. Options show bulls targeting above $4 for January.
Key arguments
- Saudi Arabia lithium reserve discovery expedites supply chain for AMP2, supporting production ramp to 10K and eventually 150K by 2026
- Lucid stock up 54% in last month — shorts being squeezed gradually
- Options consensus for above $4 for January 17, 2025
- Stock above all key technical indicators — above 50/100/200-day moving averages and Alma
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stochastic RSI at 99.8 — extremely overbought, first sign of weakness could cause volatility
- Saudi partnership is minor consumer-level improvement, not a major strategic catalyst
The call
- Date said
- Dec 26, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $33
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $30.20
- Return
- -8.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35.2. Price: $30.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35.2. Price: $30.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.