TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$10,970
“my conviction is this is the most conservative number I can come up with right now Tesla's stock will be at 10,970 in 2030.”@ 2:59 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishBhakdi's conservative DCF-style model sets a 2030 Tesla share price of roughly $10,970, implying ~85% CAGR from $500, and he argues the stock could 10x near-term and still beat conventional benchmarks.
Key arguments
- Conservative discounted future-revenue model lands at ~$10,970 in 2030.
- From $500, that implies ~85% CAGR; even at $1,000 entry you would make 61% annually.
- Even a 10x to $5,000 next year would still deliver ~17% annualized over the remaining period, beating a 12% benchmark.
- More analysts are converging toward similar $10k-range 2030 targets.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Model could be wrong by 50-100%.
- At very high 2025 entry prices the Tesla edge narrows versus alternatives.
The call
- Date said
- Dec 19, 2024
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $436.17
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$10,591.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as his conviction and derived from an explicit conservative model; he invites upside surprises.