LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“if Lucid next week comes out with their numbers and let's say they do surprise everyone with phenomenal numbers then I do feel that we could have a a squeeze Associated to that”@ 4:27 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker expects Lucid Q2 production and delivery numbers around July 9-10 (Tuesday-Wednesday), with a minimum bar of 2,100 deliveries needed to impress the market. With 28.9% of the float shorted, Lucid regularly ranks as one of the top 5 most heavily shorted stocks in the entire market — not just EVs. The EV sector appears to be bottoming (exemplified by Rivian's Volkswagen deal), and a delivery beat could ignite a short squeeze.
Key arguments
- Q2 numbers expected Tuesday or Wednesday next week — minimum 2,100 deliveries needed
- 28.9% of float shorted with 96.33% utilization — extreme squeeze potential
- The bar is so low that any delivery beat creates a disproportionate positive surprise
- EV sector appears to be bottoming; Rivian/VW deal signals institutional bottom-fishing
- Institutions bought Lucid heavily on secondary market yesterday — 10.4M in large transactions
- Technicals: flirting with 50-day moving average with bullish stochastic deviation
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Market will focus on Gravity announcements at earnings more than delivery numbers
- Speaker was wrong predicting fewer institutional buys in Q3 — acknowledges institutional interest remains
The call
- Date said
- Jul 2, 2024
- Deadline
- Jul 12, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $27.50
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.