TSLABearpending
Michael TylerTarget Price
$220
“Like 220, could that happen? It it could, but I think a lot of bad things need to happen for that to happen, right?”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe YouTuber sees Tesla's biggest upside catalyst as Optimus/humanoid robotics scaling into 2026, believing Tesla is best positioned to win the US humanoid market. However, he says Tesla's near-term price action is heavily tied to macro factors — specifically whether the Iran war ends (a 'Trump taco') and whether the Fed continues hiking rates, with a bad macro outcome potentially dragging the stock back into the 200s.
Key arguments
- Tesla is the only company positioned to win the US humanoid robotics market as Chinese humanoids won't be sold in America
- Optimus production is expected to begin by end of year and scale in the following year, turning Tesla into a robotics company
- Tesla stock has been 'coiling' and tends to make big moves after such consolidation
- Risk-reward is skewed to the upside if the Iran war ends and the Fed hiking cycle is cancelled
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If the AI trade cracks amid a Fed hiking cycle, Tesla would get 'smoked' along with the broader market
- The proposed SpaceX merger is something he is 'not a huge fan of'
- Optimus timeline could slip, which would undercut the bull thesis
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
- Outcome depends on Trump's decision at UN meeting (timing uncertain - could be next week or a year from now)
- Geopolitical situation is unpredictable and could escalate rather than de-escalate
- Acknowledges significant political uncertainty with Democrats favored in upcoming elections
- Oil price and market reaction outcomes are speculative
The call
- Date said
- Sep 17, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $358.08
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$158.90 above target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Described as his 'worst case scenario' contingent on the Fed hiking cycle and AI trade cracking, and he calls it 'pretty improbable' overall.
Source
This Could Move Tesla Stock BIG.. (Trump Taco)
Said on Sep 17, 2026Open on YouTube ↗