Lucid CityTarget Price
$5.35
“644, and then 711 is going to be the next strong support and target. If this 644 does fail to hold, then 535 is going to be the following support. And if we get remotely close to that $5 range, you're going to have a lot of chatter about a reverse stock split.”@ 7:05 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid continues the 'vicious death spiral' — 12 of last 14 sessions red, new 52-week low at $6.43, head of growth marketing departing amid a newly-diluted share count. Short interest at 32.41% of free float and rising. Technical support at $6.44; break → $5.35 and reverse-split territory. Net option premium still negative. OG longs capitulating. Fresh CEO not yet visible publicly — probably waiting for earnings to debut a reset.
Key arguments
- New 52-week low at $6.43; only 2 of last 14 sessions green
- Short interest 32.41% of free float (+297k shares added today) — doubling down, not covering
- Dilution overhang from recent raise is amplifying supply
- Head of growth marketing ('compromise nothing' slogan author) departing — pulls a productive marketing push
- Net option premium going down even on red days — big-money expects more downside
- Dark-pool whole-number prints suggest hedge funds exiting
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stochastic RSI fairly oversold
- New CEO may debut a reset narrative at upcoming earnings
- Higher trading volume (liquidity improving)
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Stochastic RSI is 'fairly oversold' — possible short-term bounce
- New CEO may debut a fresh narrative at upcoming earnings
- Tesla's post-earnings softness may be trickling down disproportionately
The call
- Date said
- Apr 23, 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term technical (if $6.44 breaks)
- Deadline
- May 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $7.11
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- partial
- Resolution price
- $5.68
- Return
- +20.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Moved 81% toward target $5.35. Price: $5.68.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Moved 81% toward target $5.35. Price: $5.68.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on $6.44 support breaking — host isn't outright predicting $5.35, but presents it as the next technical level if the death spiral continues, which is his overall framing. Explicitly named target level.