LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$18.50
Said $1.85· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I will be buying at roughly around that $180 range, $180 to $1.90 only because I do feel Lucid is ramping up... I feel at anything sub $2 is a pretty good steal”@ 5:57 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe 50% steel tariff increase is unlikely to directly hurt Lucid since Mark previously indicated locally-sourced steel, but manipulation by shorts and potential supply competition from larger automakers are indirect risks. The speaker plans to buy in the $1.80–$1.90 range and warns that breaking below $2 will trigger reverse stock split fears.
Key arguments
- Mark previously stated steel tariffs at 25% would not affect Lucid — implying local sourcing
- Indirect manipulation risk: shorts will use tariff headline to push stock down
- Lucid primarily uses aluminum not steel — reducing direct tariff exposure further
- Supply competition risk: larger automakers will get priority over Lucid for limited steel
- A dilution issuance likely in Q3 tail end could push stock to $1.80–$1.90 range
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Mark may not be 100% accurate about complete insulation from steel tariffs
- Trump could reverse or reduce the tariff quickly — it may not stick
The call
- Date said
- May 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $22
- Return
- -1.4%
- Notes
- Target ≥$18.5 reached on 2025-06-02. Price: $22.00. Return: -1.3%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$18.5 reached on 2025-06-02. Price: $22.00. Return: -1.3%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.