LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if it is able to close above that [100-day MA at 261] then you can kind of anticipate that 200 day moving average to be hit”@ 7:14 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid is wedgebound between its 50- and 100-day moving averages with low volume and no company-specific catalysts, being suppressed by algorithmic trading and shorts. The speaker sees macro data points (Nvidia earnings, GDP, PCE) as the make-or-break catalyst, and believes a longer-term money-market rotation back into equities could drive a significant rally if Lucid can demonstrate operational progress.
Key arguments
- Lucid is stuck between the 50- and 100-day MAs with $7.24 trillion in money markets on the sidelines representing a future rotation catalyst
- Shorts are strategically suppressing Lucid on days it builds momentum, adding ~147K shares net on this day
- A Seeking Alpha article projects August 4th earnings as the key catalyst for Lucid moving higher
- 49% of options activity is bullish, with call consensus around $3 for the week
- No company-specific news today; all movement is macro-driven
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid has been very quiet and hasn't delivered on promised marketing campaigns or ambassador announcements
- Lucid is lagging even on a strong broad market day
The call
- Date said
- May 27, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $26.40
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $31.20
- Return
- +18.2%
- Notes
- Target ≥$30 reached on 2025-07-17. Price: $31.20. Return: +18.2%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$30 reached on 2025-07-17. Price: $31.20. Return: +18.2%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.