TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“84% yes vote is my bet, but we only need 51.”@ 12:29 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe pay package vote is a near-certain pass given the 73% baseline from 2024 plus Musk's now-includable 13% voting stake, making Tesla a bullish long-term story while Elon retains control for Optimus and autonomy.
Key arguments
- 2024 pay package vote was 73% approval; baseline deviation to fall below 50% is implausible.
- Musk can vote his ~13% stake this time unlike in 2024, adding directly to the approval total.
- A no vote would be stock suicide and most actual shareholders understand that.
- 90% of Tesla's 2030 value depends on Optimus and autonomy, both requiring Elon's continued leadership.
- The package is 80-90% priced in so limited stock reaction expected.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS recommend voting no, which creates some dissent.
- If the vote fails it would be one of the greatest drops in Tesla stock history.
The call
- Date said
- Oct 27, 2025
- Timeframe
- November 6 shareholder meeting
- Deadline
- Nov 6, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $452.42
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker gives specific numeric prediction with multiple supporting reasons.