SNOWBearpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$200
“Yeah, probably closer to like 200 bucks, you know, this is really really gone running.”
Thesis at the time
MixedKevin is excited about Snowflake's earnings beat and post-earnings short squeeze but considers the stock significantly overvalued, estimating a more reasonable fair value near $200 versus its post-earnings trading price. He attributes much of the pop to short covering rather than fundamentals, citing elevated short interest and a sub-1% free cash flow yield.
Key arguments
- Adjusted EPS beat expectations by 37%, and the stock surged ~20% in after-hours trading
- Operating expenses (16.7% growth) are rising slower than revenue (35% growth), indicating improving operating leverage
- Elevated short interest (3.89 days to cover) suggests a short squeeze rather than pure fundamentals drove the move
- Trading around a 4.5x PEG ratio, which he calls expensive, 'like cyber' valuations
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Free cash flow yield is less than 1%, which he calls 'not that good'
- No cybersecurity-like moat, unlike higher-valued cyber stocks
- Balance sheet is 'not great, not terrible'
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges losing money on recent trades
- HPE and Five Below earnings described as 'not the biggest thing' of focus
- Market volatility and dip-buying sentiment suggests uncertain near-term conditions
- Data from Mercury report on early-stage companies may not represent broader market
The call
- Date said
- Sep 2, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $336.59$136.59 above target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Hedged heavily with 'probably', 'somewhere', and an assumption about expanding pricing power; conditional reasoning behind the fair-value estimate weakens conviction.
Source
AI Stocks: Broadcom, Snowflake, HPE Earnings
Said on Sep 2, 2026Open on YouTube ↗