LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30.60
Said $3.06· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“it has a pivot point of $210 for as long as it is above that. Then it is anticipated in the short term to get between that 297 and 315 range”@ 3:02 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid is fighting for the 50-day MA ($255) with shorts adding 1.14M shares to prevent a close above it. Elliott Wave analysis projects a move to $2.97-$3.15 as long as the stock stays above the $2.10 pivot. 49% of options are bullish with a consensus near $3. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated hold with lowered revenue estimates, further lowering the bar for Lucid to beat at Q1 earnings. Abnormal institutional volume in Q1 suggests large players have accumulated positions.
Key arguments
- Elliott Wave analysis projects $2.97-$3.15 short-term price target with $2.10 as the pivot/invalidation
- Options bulls consistently see $3 as the near-term target
- Cantor Fitzgerald lowered revenue estimates (to $250M from $255M), further lowering the bar for Lucid to beat
- Major institutional buying in Q1 suggests smart money has accumulated at current prices
- Shorts returning 20-25M shares over prior 3 days before today's increase shows a weakening trend
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts re-increasing 1.14M to break their 3-day return trend shows bears aren't giving up
- 50-day MA has repelled Lucid multiple times already
The call
- Date said
- Apr 14, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $25.30
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $22.70
- Return
- -10.3%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30.6. Price: $22.70.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30.6. Price: $22.70.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.