TSLABearhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$360
“the most likely scenario is that this drops keeps dropping a little bit and maybe to 360.”@ 2:31 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedShort-term Tesla looks technically weak with a double top pattern and could fall to $360, but the long-term fundamental bull case targeting $1,000 in 2025 remains intact.
Key arguments
- Tesla formed a double top around $480 and has been rejected twice.
- Q1 weakness was forecasted and is playing out now.
- Fundamentals remain very bullish heading into the year.
- Tactical traders should be cautious short-term and avoid short puts.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A bounce from current levels is reasonably possible.
- Short-term downtrend looks clear on the chart.
The call
- Date said
- Jan 20, 2025
- Timeframe
- Q1 2025
- Deadline
- Mar 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $424.07
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $350.73
- Return
- +17.3%
- Notes
- Target ≤$360 reached on 2025-02-10. Price: $350.73. Return: +17.3%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$360 reached on 2025-02-10. Price: $350.73. Return: +17.3%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as most likely short-term scenario with specific target.