SPYBullunverifiable
Michael Tyler“you actually tend to bottom on September 30th and then you begin a 12 month rally or really like a 10-month vertical rally.”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe host expects heightened volatility around Friday's massive triple witching event and a possible Fed rate hike on Wednesday, believing markets could swing sharply in either direction depending on whether the Iran conflict de-escalates or a new hiking cycle begins. He personally remains fully invested and plans to buy any dip, citing a seasonal pattern of pre-midterm election weakness bottoming around September 30th followed by a multi-month rally.
Key arguments
- This Friday's triple witching event is $2 trillion larger than June's, which preceded an 8% 5-day S&P decline
- A rate hike could cause an initial rally that fades over subsequent days as yields eventually settle
- Seasonal pattern suggests stocks bottom near September 30th in pre-midterm years before a strong rally
- Outcome depends heavily on whether the Iran war ends and how many rate hikes get priced in
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If the war does not end and multiple rate hikes occur, downside could be significant
- Rate hikes pressure earnings estimates and consumer strength
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
- Speculation about AI agent infiltration and revenue slowdown presented without confirmation
- Multiple competing theories about AI policy drivers without definitive conclusions
- Historical reference to June triple witching (S&P fell 8% in 5 days) used as cautionary comparison, not prediction
The call
- Date said
- Sep 14, 2026
- Timeframe
- 10-month rally starting after September 30th bottom
- Price at prediction
- $764.29
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Based on a historical seasonal pattern the host references with conviction, but no explicit price target is given.
Source
BIG NEWS for Tesla Stock + SHOCKING Turn of Events Today..
Said on Sep 14, 2026Open on YouTube ↗