SPY bullish call by Meet Kevin

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“I do actually lean pretty heavily into being bullish, certainly post midterms. I think the rest of this year potentially has more of a bullish squeeze.”

Thesis at the time

Mixed

Kevin reports JP Morgan's near-term tactical caution on stocks due to Fed meeting risk, credit spread widening, and heavy issuance, but he personally maintains a bullish bias on his own 1-10 scale and expects a bullish squeeze into year-end, especially after the midterms, citing historically strong post-midterm seasonality.

Key arguments

September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500 while Q4 is historically the strongest.
Since 1990, the S&P 500 has rallied with a 78% hit rate after midterms, and 100% hit rates over 6, 9, and 12-month periods.
Corporate profits rose 41% quarter-over-quarter, one of the best quarterly outcomes in over 20 years excluding recovery periods.

Counter-arguments acknowledged

The September Fed meeting is considered 'live' with CPI and jobs data as key catalysts.
Credit spread widening and a spike in debt/IPO issuance post-Labor Day could pressure equities in the near term.

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

JP Morgan is only tactically bearish for the next few weeks, not strategically
Recession probability estimated at only 23% according to JP Morgan's measures
Underlying economic fundamentals remain strong
Host maintains a 7.1/10 bullish bias on the bull-bear scale
Long-term risks (AI bubble, tariffs, geopolitical tensions) may compound recession risk 2-3 years out
Host notes lack of releveraging in markets may limit downside
Uncertainty around September FOMC meeting and potential rate hike timing