TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“It would add roughly $60 to the share price.”@ 12:29 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe affordable Model Y was strategically delayed to October 2025 to avoid launching during a Q3 tax-credit pull-forward, setting Tesla up for a surprise Q4 catalyst that could massively expand its TAM and lift the stock.
Key arguments
- EV tax credit expiration Sep 30 pulled Q3 demand forward, making a Q3 affordable-model launch irrational.
- Affordable Model Y is essentially a stripped-down Model Y and the easiest launch in Tesla history.
- Green's firmware findings and production photos from Fremont/Austin confirm the model is real and imminent.
- Dropping below $35k 3x's Tesla's TAM in the EV market per ARK's price-segment chart.
- Host assigns 90%+ probability to an October launch; market assumes it is delayed, creating alpha.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Many people believe Tesla has missed its own timeline and is just late again.
- Q4 without an affordable model would be very weak due to tax-credit pull-forward.
- Hitting $29k is very difficult for Tesla, so the model likely lands below $35k rather than below $30k.
The call
- Date said
- Sep 29, 2025
- Timeframe
- on affordable model launch
- Price at prediction
- $443.21
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host provides explicit assumptions (1M cars, $5k margin, 50x PE) but calls them conservative; timeframe is vague.