TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$400
“If the stock goes up let's say to 380 or 400 I think that's more likely than not in 2025.”@ 21:15 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishRobotaxi deployment will trigger a forcing function at 5% of 2024 free cash flow, driving the stock towards $1,000 in late 2025 or early 2026. Short term, he expects a runup to around $400 in July and potentially sells some leaps into it due to macro risks in Q3-Q4.
Key arguments
- Current political selloff (Elon vs GOP big beautiful bill) is phony and unrelated to Tesla fundamentals.
- Fair 2025 value close to $800-$1,000 if robotaxi delivers.
- Forcing function crosses 5% threshold in Dec 2025 (fast) or Feb-Mar 2026 (expected).
- Slow scenario (200 robotaxis by Dec) would represent a thesis failure for leaps.
- Fear and greed index at 60 vs 4 six weeks ago — market risk rising.
- Macro correction risk in Q3/Q4 2025 is elevated.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Macro correction late Q3/Q4 could hammer Tesla regardless of robotaxi.
- Slow trajectory could mean the options thesis fails.
- Time decay on leaps is a real risk while waiting for the forcing function.
The call
- Date said
- Jun 5, 2025
- Timeframe
- by July 2025
- Deadline
- Jul 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $284.70
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $308.27
- Return
- +8.3%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 20% progress toward target $400. Price: $308.27.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 20% progress toward target $400. Price: $308.27.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Bhakdi explicitly says this is his thesis and more likely than not, framed as a near-term trade setup.