TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$600
“that is the latest point where the stock has to be driven towards 600 plus.”@ 8:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla's new broad-but-slow robotaxi rollout strategy will unlock ~50% of the US population by end of 2025 and cross the 5% free-cash-flow forcing function in May 2026, creating a surprise acceleration that should drive the stock higher.
Key arguments
- Self-certification states like Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Ohio, Illinois cover 141 million Americans.
- Safety drivers likely removed in Austin around November after sufficient mile accumulation.
- Forcing function is 5% of Tesla 2024 free cash flow from robotaxi division, expected to cross in May 2026.
- Robotaxi division will generate as much FCF in Dec 2026 annualized as all of Tesla did in 2024.
- By 2027, robotaxi FCF could triple Tesla's 2024 total.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Austin scaling is slower than initial assumptions (only 7,000 miles last month).
- Downgraded 2026 robotaxi count from 100,000 to ~40,000.
- California and NY have significant regulatory hurdles.
The call
- Date said
- Jul 29, 2025
- Timeframe
- once 5% FCF forcing function crosses (May 2026)
- Deadline
- May 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $321.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $417.26
- Return
- +29.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 34% progress toward target $600. Price: $417.26.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 34% progress toward target $600. Price: $417.26.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host ties price target to crossing forcing function threshold with model-based conviction.