NVDABullhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$190
“Nvidia to 190 and so on. This is going to happen in absolutely no time once you we take Iran off the table”@ 18:37 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishNvidia is the speaker's second-largest position and considered the safest value stock in the Magnificent 7 due to strong fundamentals and low PE ratio. Expected to benefit significantly from the AGI revolution and productivity increases.
Key arguments
- Safest value stock in Magnificent 7 with strongest fundamentals
- Very low PE ratio provides safety
- Will be driven into stratosphere by AGI revolution
- Second biggest position after Tesla
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Subject to same geopolitical risks as broader market
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Explicitly states 'this is not advice'
- Acknowledges uncertainty about Iran situation and Trump's response
- Admits he did not anticipate the Iran war impact
- Notes that current market turmoil may be temporary ('relief' possible)
- Recognizes Tesla's 25% decline is 'a lot' despite being positioned for it
- Acknowledges portfolio is 'down significantly' year-to-date
The call
- Date said
- Apr 7, 2026
- Timeframe
- in absolutely no time once Iran situation resolves
- Price at prediction
- $178.10
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $196.51
- Return
- +10.3%
- Notes
- Target ≥$190 reached on 2026-04-14. Price: $196.51. Return: +10.3%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$190 reached on 2026-04-14. Price: $196.51. Return: +10.3%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong conviction with 'going to happen' and 'absolutely no time' language