ONONBullunverifiable
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium“I think this is a phenomenal company and a phenomenal stock for investors who have a long-term view of the company.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTravis Hoium views On Holding as a phenomenal long-term compounder trading at a below-market valuation, citing raised medium-term guidance (high-teens revenue CAGR through 2029, 65%+ gross margins, 22% adjusted EBITDA margin), a new $1 billion buyback that could retire ~10% of shares, and expansion into soccer and golf as growth catalysts. He believes the combination of continued revenue growth, margin expansion, share count reduction, and potential multiple expansion make this an attractive long-term investment despite a rough 2026 stock performance.
Key arguments
- Management raised medium-term guidance to high-teens constant-currency revenue CAGR through 2029, with gross margin target raised from 60% to at least 65%
- New $1 billion buyback program could retire about 10% of shares outstanding, amplifying any multiple expansion
- Expansion into soccer (Mbappe partnership) and golf opens large, high-margin new addressable markets beyond running
- Company is consistently free cash flow positive and net income positive, which is rare in consumer goods, with $1.6 billion cash on the balance sheet
- Stock trades at a below-market multiple (~20x current, ~16x forward) despite strong growth prospects
- Apparel and accessories represent a small percentage of revenue today but could be a significant growth lever
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Guidance was reduced in the most recent quarter, raising concerns about slowing growth especially in the high end of the market
- Consumer goods and apparel companies broadly have been hit hard in 2026
- Stock was down as much as 40-42% year-to-date before this move
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Stock down 40% YTD, indicating significant prior weakness
- Recent guidance reduction in Q2 earnings raised concerns about growth slowdown
- Macro headwinds affecting luxury/high-end apparel sector broadly
- Currency headwinds noted (company reports in Swiss Francs)
- Execution risk on new market entries (soccer and golf)
- Analyst owns the stock (potential conflict of interest)
The call
- Date said
- Sep 22, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $27.32
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong positive conviction language ('phenomenal') tempered by hedge phrase 'I think' and no specific price target or timeframe given.
Source
Why On Holding Just Surged 10% (And What’s Next)
Said on Sep 22, 2026Open on YouTube ↗