LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“if it does come in at 2,000 possibly as what I said in my kind of predictions yesterday so 2100 and then 2,000 produced 2100 delivered then I still see that as extremely bullish and that lucid is moving in the right direction”@ 4:33 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker highlights anomalous bullish options activity: 71-91% of options flow has been bullish in recent days, with a single $1.67M premium block in January 2025 calls and a $600K block in June 2025 puts being sold - all signaling that large sophisticated money is positioning for significant upside. Combined with the stochastic at 13 (very oversold), the speaker expects Q3 numbers around 2,100 deliveries to be seen as very bullish. The Sid Philar interview is also shared covering Lucid's supply chain strategy.
Key arguments
- 71% of options flow bullish today; 91% bullish yesterday
- $1.67M premium in Jan 2025 $3.50 calls and $600K in June 2025 puts being sold - very bullish signals
- $3.78M after-hours purchase of 1 million shares by unknown entity
- Stochastic at 13 - extremely oversold, setting up for potential value investor rush
- Speaker predicts ~2,100 deliveries and ~2,000 production for Q3, which he sees as bullish
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Options flow is sentiment indicator only, does not directly move stock price
- Unemployment data tomorrow creates volatility risk
The call
- Date said
- Oct 3, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $33.90
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.